Just a few days ago we saw eighty degree
temperatures here in the Valley of the Sun and now in March we start out with
two days in the fifties and sixties. Just seems like when we think we are warming
up and getting ready to think air conditioning we find we need our heating
systems and warm jackets.
That sure isn’t news for the folks at the National
Weather Service. It is their job to predict our local weather. Something that
isn’t easy to do.
The outlook for the Phoenix Metro Area for March is
cooler (3 degrees) and just a bit wetter than average. At the end of March we will see how accurate
that is.
If we take a snapshot of a weather forecast here is
what we see;
AT 8 PM MST THE COLD FRONT HAD SHIFTED INTO EASTERN
ARIZONA ALONG
WITH THE PRECIP BAND. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
THIS EVENING A
FEW SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THIS EVENINGS UPPER AIR DATA
CONTINUED TO SHOW LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS STILL ENTRAINING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ FROM THE BAJA REGION.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF THROUGH TUESDAY
WILL CONTINUE A MARGINAL THREAT OF SHOWERS. CLEARING WEDNESDAY.
I’m not sure that the National Weather Service does
a review of the forecast and then publishes on average how accurate the
forecasts tend to be. If anyone knows please let me know.
Before looking at why longer-term forecasts are less
accurate than current forecasts, lets looks at basic definitions on the types
of weather forecasts made in relation to time:
A short-range forecast is a weather forecast made
for a time period up to 48 hours.
Extended forecasts are for a period extending beyond
three or more days (eg. a three to five-day period) from the day of issuance.
Medium range forecasts are for a period extending
from about three days to seven days in advance.
Long-range forecasts are for a period greater than
seven days in advance but there are no absolute limits to the period.
Weather forecasts still have their limitations
despite the use of modern technology and improved techniques to predict the
weather. For example, weather forecasts for today or tomorrow are likely to be
more dependable than predictions about the weather about two weeks from now.
Some sources state that weather forecast accuracy falls significantly beyond
about 10 days.
If you are looking for fast and fair HVAC service or
replacement we want you to think of Aaron’s Mechanical Services. We want you to stay comfortable all year
round. Most important we want you to spend the least amount of money possible
while you stay comfortable. If your heating system or HVAC unit needs service
or replacement please think of us and call at 623-388-4436 and we will come to
you and solve your heating system service needs.
Presented by;
Aaron’s Mechanical Services
623-388-4436
http://aaronsmechanicalservices.com
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